Enormous Ukrainian losses - only three months left to fight?
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is not going well, experts agree. Estimates of the possible duration of the bloody fighting and the associated losses are becoming increasingly gloomy.
First there was talk of a "spring offensive" that would bring "victory" to Ukraine and liberate all Russian-occupied territories. Then it became summer. Now the counter-offensive has begun - but the forecasts are becoming increasingly modest.
"We are preparing for the war to last several more months, or even longer." French EU Commissioner Breton told the newspaper "Le Parisien". He said that the EU would therefore seek more and faster arms deliveries.
However, hardly anyone still believes that the arms build-up will lead to Ukraine's "victory". Even the leadership of the Ukrainian military warns against too high expectations, the ARD Press Club was told. The offensive will probably not decide the war quickly.
Meanwhile, reports from the front are becoming increasingly gloomy. The renowned French expert M. Goya writes that Ukraine lost 42 tanks and other military vehicles in the first week - among them 4 Leopard 2A4 & A6, 3 Leopard 2R and 16 VCI Bradley.
If things continue at this rate, the Ukrainian army will no longer be able to fight in four months.
The estimates for dead and wounded soldiers are even more pessimistic. Ukraine had about 5,000 casualties in the first week alone, the expert said, citing data from Oryx.
If this continues, the twelve Ukrainian assault brigades could be reduced to 30 per cent in three months, making them unfit for combat.
Cela donnerait donc pour cette semaine un ordre de grandeur de près de 5 000 soldats ukrainiens touchés, donc 2 500 définitivement hors de combat (tués, blessés graves, prisonniers) en une semaine et 2500 qui peuvent revenir rapidement en ligne. Considering that 3 to 4,000 of these men are in Operation X, this gives at this rate a combat capacity of three months for the 12 brigades of the first echelon before being reduced to 30% of the effective forces. Là encore les relèves seront, normalement, effectuées avant.
These figures are, of course, only estimates and should be treated with caution. But it is clear that Ukraine is not only running out of weapons and ammunition, but soon also of combat-capable soldiers. By autumn at the latest, it will need reinforcements...
More on the war in Ukraine here (Blog, German)